2007 deadliest for US troops in Iraq
http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20071230/ap_on_re_mi_ea/iraq_casualties

So it’s time to update my semi-annual tallies:

Statistics are very sensitive to start-stop points and so on. So from the data we have, how about a comparison by half-year? Start with either Jan. ‘03 or March ‘03. (Hostile action deaths).
6 months ending:
Calendar | From Onset
2003/06 134 | 2003/08 178
2003/12 189 | 2004/02 196
2004/06 311 | 2004/08 359
2004/12 408 | 2005/02 405
2005/06 309 | 2005/08 333
2005/12 367 | 2006/02 335
2006/06 293 | 2006/08 301
2006/12 410 | 2007/02 463
2007/06 529 | 2007/08 502
2007/12 233 | 2008/02 111 (to date)
Total: 3183 3183
6-mo. Ave: 318.3

Ist half of year averages:
315.2 | 334.6

2nd half of year averages:
321.4 | 302

6-mo averages excluding ‘07:
~303 | ~321

1st half excluding ‘07:
~262 | ~293

2nd half excluding ‘07/’08
~344 | ~350

So: the 1st half of calendar ‘07 exceeded the previous average by ~267. The second half was below the average by ~85, and ~88 below the average of the 2nd halves of the year. Compared to the previous overall 6 mo. average, the 6-mo calender 2nd half of ‘07 is ~111 lower.

For the 6-month periods since onset, there’s time to make up for the final period, but the 1st half of ‘07/08 is ~209 above the previous averages. The second half is 239 below the previous average, with 2 months to make up the difference. If the current total (last 4 months) increases 50%, the total will be ~167, 142 below the previous 2nd half average. If the ~22/month average from Nov-Dec holds, the total will be 155, or 195 below the previous 2nd half year average.

So two alternate predictions come out of this.

If you believe this is a fluke, not a “trend”, you need 239 more fatalities before the end of February to bring the current 6-month averages up to snuff.

If you believe the numbers show a trend, you’d expect about 30 more fatalities by the end of February.

So the differences in predictions are: anti-liberationists had a serious shortfall of 111 deaths for the calendar half-year ending Dec. ‘07.

Anti-liberationists need 239 US combat deaths by the end of February to bring things back on track, and liberationists expect no more than 30, for a difference of 209.

Place yer bets, ladies and gentlebongs!

“the 1st half of calendar ‘07 exceeded the previous average by ~267. The second half was below the average by ~85, and ~88 below the overall average of the 2nd halves of the year. Compared to the previous 2nd half 6 mo. average, the 6-mo calender 2nd half of ‘07 was ~111 lower.”

And just to continue the “highest, lowest” theme of Pat’s post:
the 2nd half of calendar ‘07 is the lowest since ‘03,
and the 2nd half of ‘07 since onset is on track to be the lowest EVER!