Pat Dollard

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Going into Super Tuesday, this is how the race is shaping up:

Iowa:
Romney: 29,494
McCain: 15,559
Huckabee: 40,841

New Hampshire:
Romney: 75,202
McCain: 88,447
Huckabee: 26,760

Michigan:
Romney: 337,847
McCain: 257,251
Huckabee: 139,699

Nevada:
Romney: 22,649
McCain: 5,651
Huckabee: 3,521

S. Carolina:
Romney: 64,970
McCain:143,224
Huckabee:128,908

Florida:
Romney:598,152
McCain: 693,425
Huckabee:259,703

Total:
Romney:1,128,314
McCain:1,203,557
Huckabee:621,579

Total Delegates:
Romney:74
McCain: 97
Huckabee: 29

CNN puts McCain with 97 delegates and Romney at 74.

Let’s look at the worst case for Romney on Super Tuesday.

Next Tuesday the winner-take-all states that lean McCain are New York (101), Missouri (58), Arizona (53), New Jersey (52) Connecticut (30), and Delaware (18) for a total of 312 delegates. (Even though Missouri, another winner-take-all leans Huck right now, lets give its 58 delegates to McCain.)

Romney is favored in winner-take-all Utah (36) and Montana (25), for a total of 51 delegates.

Thus before the sorting takes place in the other states, McCain’s got 409 delegates and Romney’s got 126.

Huckabee will certainly get the 34 Arkansas delegates to go with his 29, for a total of 63.

States dividing delegates Tuesday on other-than-a-winner-take-all basis:

California 173
Georgia 72
Illinois 70
Tennessee 55
Alabama 48
Colorado 46
Massachusetts 41
Minnesota 40
Oklahoma 41
West Virginia 30
Alaska 29
North Dakota 26

Total 671

If these divide 40-40-20, McCain and Romney will add 269 delegates each, and Huck 133. But since we are going worst case for Romney, make it 50-30-20, or 336 for McCain, 201 for Romney, and 134 for Huck.

Total at the end of Super Tuesday without a major reversal of fortune for Romney:

McCain 745, Romney 327, and Huck 197.

It takes 1,191 delegates to secure the nomination. There are more than 900 delegates left to fight for after Super Tuesday.

Start looking hard at the numbers and put yourself in the discussions with Team Romney. It isn’t pretty, but it is far, far from over.

And if the Huckabee voters look at the reality and see they are voting for McCain when they vote for Huck, anything can happen.

(Hugh Hewitt)

Nods to drillanwr.