Pat Dollard | Young Americans

WASHINGTON - Wisconsin is almost the kind of state Hillary Rodham Clinton would have invented to win a Democratic presidential primary, brimming with whites and working class voters who usually support her. A poor performance there Tuesday would raise big questions about her candidacy.

Clinton needs to do something to break Barack Obama’s momentum. Her rival has won in eight straight states, including decisive victories last week in Virginia and Maryland, and has begun to diminish her edge with core supporters like women and the elderly.

The Illinois senator also has established a small lead in the crucial hunt for delegates who will pick the party’s nominee at this summer’s convention in Denver, and he continues to raise more money than Clinton.

Clinton’s campaign has focused on March 4 contests in Ohio and Texas as the next major opportunity to revive her hopes. But that’s a long way off, and a poor showing in Wisconsin may underscore the New York senator’s problems holding on to her cornerstone supporters.

“Wisconsin will be an important sign of things to come in what is likely to be a make or break day in the campaign” on March 4, said Democratic pollster Geoffrey Garin, who is not working for either candidate.

Obama has some built-in advantages in Wisconsin: It’s next door to his home state and the Democratic governor, Jim Doyle, actively supports him.

Even so, exit polls from this year’s Democratic presidential contests and from Wisconsin’s 2004 Democratic presidential primary sketch a picture of a state whose voters are practically tailor-made to resuscitate Clinton’s campaign.

For starters, nine in 10 of Wisconsin’s Democratic voters in 2004 were white, far more than the six in 10 so far in this year’s primaries. In a campaign in which race has formed a clear dividing line between her and Obama, Clinton has so far forged an 11 percentage point advantage among whites.