Pat Dollard

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Politico:

SAN ANTONIO, TX. — As both campaigns continue to work furiously in the run-up to the March 4 primary here, there are telling signs that the Hispanic vote, considered the lynchpin to Sen. Hillary Clinton’s Texas strategy, may be more up for grabs than widely thought.

Some of these signs are more obvious than others, but Barack Obama is gaining traction among Hispanics and focusing resources in San Antonio and westward to the border with Mexico, areas that have been considered Clinton strongholds.

The question is whether that will be enough to overcome 35 years of goodwill between Clinton and the Texas Hispanic community — and a deep sense of loyalty that dates back to her work on George McGovern’s 1972 presidential campaign.

A CNN/Opinion Research Corp. poll released Monday reported that Clinton still has significant support with the Hispanic community — roughly two-thirds. But Obama’s dominant performance among African Americans, among whom he is winning nearly eight of 10 votes, has helped put him into a statistical tie with Clinton in Texas.

Campaigning at a polling station deep in San Antonio’s Latino community on the West Side—early voting in person or by mail began last Tuesday — veteran political activist and Clinton supporter Jose Gallegos shook his head with worry about the state of the Clinton campaign.

“Regrettably, and it’s disappointing, they were a little bit late in organizing,” he said. “They didn’t realize how critical the state of Texas was going to be to the outcome of the nomination. When they arrived, it was probably a little bit too late. But I am hoping it’s not.”

Last week, 3,000 people attended a Barack Obama rally at Guadalupe Plaza on San Antonio’s West Side.

The rally “was symbolic,” said state Rep. Trey Martinez Fischer, an Obama supporter who represents the area. “We wanted to send a message to Texas and the United States that nobody owns the Hispanic vote.”

The Clinton campaign, it seems, has already heard that message. In response to the rally, Clinton volunteers fanned out into the same neighborhood to knock on doors and leaflet homes.

Indeed, Clinton’s organizer in Texas, Averell “Ace” Smith, said in a Monday conference call the campaign takes nothing for granted.

“We have active field operations in every major South Texas city, all the way from San Antonio to Brownsville out to Laredo and El Paso and everything in between,” he said.

The Clinton campaign also maintained the burden is not on Clinton to win the Hispanic vote — which they expect her to do by a sizeable margin — but on Obama to prove he can win the Democratic nomination with a broad coalition of support.

“We are going to put up a candidate to be our nominee who cannot get any Hispanic votes?” Texas Clinton campaign coordinator Gary Mauro asked pointedly.

Still, in South Texas and in other areas where Clinton was once thought to be nearly unassailable, the Obama campaign is making progress among one-time Clinton supporters like “Little Joe” Hernandez, who as the leader of a popular Tejano music group performed at President Bill Clinton’s first inauguration.

“I love the senator,” said Hernandez, who is widely popular among Hispanics in the Southwest and Midwest. “But I didn’t feel the fire or emotion” that he sensed in Barack Obama’s leadership style. He decided to back Obama in recent days, after driving three hours from Temple to San Antonio to attend a Clinton rally and leaving disappointed.

A driving factor behind Obama’s support is a familiar generational divide, this one within the Hispanic community, pitting younger newcomers against the older Texas Democratic establishment.

“It’s based on generational dimensions,” said Mike Martinez, a 38-year-old Austin city council member. “The Hispanics who have been part of the power structure within the community are sticking with [Clinton]. We are not.”

There is little to indicate that Clinton’s support is fraying among the state’s older, liberal and Hispanic power elite, a testament to her longstanding relationship with the state.

“This guy (Obama) is coming on strong here,” said Bexar County Judge Nelson Wolf, a former San Antonio mayor and a Clinton backer. “I still think she’ll win. Hillary has much greater roots here and really understands our part of Texas.”

In San Antonio, perhaps Clinton’s strongest major Texas city, the idea of getting a “two-for-one” Clinton deal has strong appeal. One voter at the West Side polling place proudly displayed his copy of a photo that morphs the faces of the senator and her husband, former President Clinton, wearing a suit and tie.

While the “change” argument is working for Obama supporters, Clinton’s “experience” continues to resonate with many voters.

“Everything she has done, on education, health insurance, everything she has talked about, I like. She has more years there [in Washington],” said Yolanda Vasquez, a 50-year-old school cafeteria worker, as she exited the West Side polling place.

Vasquez also is fiercely loyal to Clinton. She refused to sign a permission slip from her son’s school that would have allowed him to attend Obama’s recent rally. She also received a call from the Obama campaign, inviting her to the gathering.

“I told them my vote was for Hillary Clinton. Period.”