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The Swamp:

Zogby sees late Clinton surge in Texas, Ohio

Posted at 9:29 AM
by Frank James

Maybe that Clinton ad that asked voters who they want in the White House to take those 3 am crisis calls actually worked.

John Zogby, the pollster, has detected voter movement towards Sen. Hillary Clinton in both Ohio and Texas in the days just before today’s primaries in those states. Primaries are also being held in Rhode Island and Vermont but they’re not really where the main focus is.

While Zogby still sees the race between Clinton and Sen. Barack Obama in both states as close, given the surge he’s detected for Clinton among a broad range of voters in Texas and Ohio, it shouldn’t surprise anyone if she winds up winning both states today. Still, it might not be by the kind of huge margins she would need to catch up in the pledged delegate chase.

Here’s a passage from a release issued by Zogby International:

Pollster John Zogby: “In Ohio, there have been no dramatic changes. This has always been close, except that now the undecideds are up to 8%, and the increase has come from the Obama column. It looks like a combination of questions raised about Obama’s capacity to lead the military, his stance on NAFTA, and questions about ethics have shaved a few points off his support.

In an earlier posting, I reported that it appeared the Clinton ad didn’t have a significant impact, based on the results of a large, Internet focus-group shown the ad.

But Zogby’s survey suggests that it may have had enough of an impact to get Clinton past Sen. Barack Obama.

His statement continues:

“Clinton has not closed the deal yet, but she has picked up some additional support among women and older voters. Obama continues to lead in the big cities of Ohio, and it looks like Cincinnati is keeping him in this game. He has been working it hard, and has received the endorsement of the mayor there. But Clinton has opened up a big lead among Catholics – which, translated, means white ethnics.

“In Texas, Hillary had a slight lead in Sunday’s polling, which was enhanced by her lead in Monday’s polling, and those are the figures combined into the two-day rolling average of our poll. How did she pull ahead? She clearly increased support among white men and Hispanic men, mostly based on her late campaign focusing on her fitness for military command. She also enjoys strong support from white and Hispanic women. One thing that could prove significant is that much of Obama’s recent advances in the Houston area seem to have dissipated.