Pat Dollard | Young Americans

Surge, success. Both would have been impossible under President Obama or any Democrat.

Wall Street Journal:

BAGHDAD — Anti-American cleric Muqtada al-Sadr — long a thorn in the side of the U.S. military and Iraqi government — intends to disarm his once-dominant Mahdi Army militia and remake it as a social-services organization.

The transformation would represent a significant turnabout for a group that, as recently as earlier this year, was seen as one of the most destabilizing anti-American forces in Iraq. For much of the past several years, the Mahdi Army, headed by Mr. Sadr, a Shiite cleric, controlled sizable chunks of Baghdad and other cities. Its brand of pro-Shiite activism had the side effect of pitting Iraqis against each other, helping to stir worries of civil war.

Recently, however, the group has been hit by a largely successful Iraqi military crackdown against militia members operating as criminal gangs. At the same time, Mr. Sadr’s popular support is dwindling: Residents who once viewed the Mahdi Army as champions of the poor became alienated by what they saw as its thuggish behavior.

A new brochure, obtained by The Wall Street Journal and confirmed by Mr. Sadr’s chief spokesman, Sheik Salah al-Obeidi, states that the Mahdi Army will now be guided by Shiite spirituality instead of anti-American militancy. The group will focus on education, religion and social justice, according to the brochure, which is aimed at Mr. Sadr’s followers. The brochure also states that it “is not allowed to use arms at all.”

Posters have been put up in some areas of Baghdad saying a new direction for the Mahdi Army will be announced at this Friday’s prayers.

The Mahdi Army has long stated that its principal goal is withdrawal of U.S. troops from Iraq. Since talks of setting a goal for a timetable for withdrawal have emerged — as part of the long-term security deal between the U.S. and Iraq currently nearing completion — the movement now intends to try to help Iraqi society via peaceful means, according to Mr. Obeidi.

Disarmament is far from certain. The group is ridden with internal strife, and Mr. Sadr now is believed to spend significant time outside the country, in Iran.

U.S. military spokesman Col. Jerry O’Hara said the military welcomed the news, but said “the proof is always in the actions and not just the words, so we’ll take a wait-and-see approach.”

The Mahdi Army’s makeover is at least partly a reaction to the loss of popular support. Previously, many Iraqis blamed the U.S. and the Iraqi government for fighting that erupted with the militia, but in the most recent battles that began in March, many residents turned against the militia because they were fed up with its criminal and violent activities, including kidnapping and smuggling.

This reorganization reflects a major effort by Mr. Sadr to regain grass-roots support and weed out some more extremist elements. Mr. Sadr has expressed frustration at individuals who have continued fighting U.S. and Iraqi security forces despite a cease-fire hammered out in May, following the Iraqi crackdown that began in Basra in late March.

He faces big challenges. Hard-liners within the Mahdi Army will likely reject Mr. Sadr’s new strategy, just as they have ignored his orders to freeze violent activities as part of a cease-fire. These members have also been threatening — and assassinating — rivals who support the cease-fire.

This leaves in question whether more moderate members will take the risky step of working to implement Mr. Sadr’s strategy, or instead remain underground as many of them have. “We know it will take time to get rid of these bad elements, and even some good people joined them because they fell into a trap,” said Sheik Abu Ali, a moderate Mahdi Army leader and cleric whose brother was kidnapped by fellow Mahdi Army members because of his views. Since then, he stopped his religious work but is hoping the new strategy will make him feel safe enough to resume teaching.

If successful, Mr. Sadr’s shift could widen his role on Iraq’s political stage. Mr. Sadr’s followers already have seats in Parliament. The group also plans to endorse independent candidates it favors in the next provincial elections, although the movement won’t field candidates itself.

Logical Step

Kenneth Pollack, a senior fellow at the Brookings Institution, said turning the Mahdi Army into a civic and political organization was a logical step given the weakening of the militia after the crackdown in Basra, Sadr City and Amarah. Indeed, in the long term, it could help legitimize the movement. “If the government fails to deliver on basic services and other needs of the Iraqis, Sadr followers could use their new organization to tell people they should look to them as voice of change,” Mr. Pollack said.

Until recently, the Mahdi Army had enjoyed widespread popular support in areas of Baghdad and in the southern Shiite area of Iraq because it was known to help the poor by giving them money, food and other aid. But its popularity began to wane in the past few months as some members turned increasingly to criminal activity such as taking control of gas stations and extorting money from merchants in exchange for protection.

According to the new brochure, the Mahdi Army will now adhere to the guiding principle of “al-Mumahidoon,” which translates roughly as “those who are paving the way” in Arabic. It’s a reference to people who are awaiting the return of Imam Muhammad al-Mahdi, a revered religious figure in Shia Islam, who Shiites believe will come back to rid the world of evil and injustice.

Mr. Sadr isn’t giving up armed resistance entirely. Mr. Obeidi said Mr. Sadr will continue to direct small, special armed cells for limited military operations against U.S. forces. He said specific details about these cells, and how they can be distinguished from rogue Mahdi Army members, will be publicized at a future date.

The actions of the Mahdi Army have enormous impact on Iraq’s stability. For instance, the Basra military crackdown on rogue members in late March sparked fighting across southern Iraq and in Baghdad.

Senior American and British commanders say they have increasingly come to conclude that Mr. Sadr’s once-feared militia is in disarray. American officers say Mr. Sadr now spends most of his time in neighboring Iran, where he has talked of pursuing a more advanced course of religious studies.

Earlier this summer, Mr. Sadr said he was creating a new group dedicated solely to attacking American forces. But in a recent interview, Lt. Gen. Lloyd Austin, the day-to-day commander of all American troops here, said he had “not seen any evidence that the group exists.”

The southern city of Basra had long been one of Mr. Sadr’s primary strongholds, but it is now under the control of the Iraqi army. Mortar attacks have fallen by close to 90%, and the number of bodies that turn up in the city’s morgue each day has declined from 30 earlier this year to one or two today.

Tahseen al-Shaikhli, spokesman for the Baghdad security plan, said the Iraqi government is pleased with Mr. Sadr’s stated plan for the militia. “We welcome any news about Iraqis laying down their arms and working to rebuild this country,” Mr. Shaikhli said.

Regrouping

While the Mahdi Army has been weakened since the Iraqi military operations earlier this year, the extremist elements are regrouping and being trained, with an estimated 5,000 members in Iran. Some U.S. military officials worry there is a chance that the extremists could return.

Abu Karar al-Sadri, a Mahdi Army leader in Baghdad’s Rusafa neighborhood who has been against the cease-fire, says he and his men will continue operations despite this new direction for the Mahdi Army. He acknowledged that his fighters had been negatively affected by the crackdown but said they are rebuilding. “We will continue to fight until the occupation is driven out of Iraq,” he said.

Mr. Sadr began moving away from military operations when he ordered a cease-fire last August after Mahdi Army members clashed with government forces in the southern city of Karbala during a Shiite religious holiday. The fighting represented growing rivalry between Sadr followers and supporters of the main Shiite parties in government, the Islamic Supreme Council of Iraq and the Islamic Dawa Party. In February, Mr. Sadr extended the cease-fire for an additional six months.

Since then, several moderate Sadr followers who favored the cease-fire have been killed. In April, Riyadh al-Nouri, director of Mr. Sadr’s office in Najaf, was gunned down following Friday prayers after a rumor circulated that he was supporting the Americans.

Mr. Abu Ali, the cleric — who had been a good friend of Mr. Nouri’s — has gone underground since gunmen abducted his brother and threatened to kill him unless he stopped supporting the cease-fire and speaking out against more extremist militia members.

“We want people to come back to the Sadr movement and believe in us again,” he said. “We hope this new direction will allow us to rebuild our relationship with the people and make them believe we are good again.”