Gustav Headed For Current That Fuels Big Storms
WASHINGTON - The difference between a monster and a wimp for Gulf of Mexico hurricanes often comes down to a small patch of warm deep water that’s easy to miss. It’s called the Loop Current, and hurricane trackers say Gustav is headed right for it, reminiscent of Katrina.
Gustav is likely to reach this current late Saturday, experts say. What happens next will be crucial, maybe deadly.
If Gustav hits the Loop Current and lingers in that hot spot, watch out. If the storm misses it or zips through the current, then Gustav probably won’t be much of a name to remember.
The meandering Loop Current, located in the southeastern gulf, provides loads of hurricane fuel. It was a key stopover for nearly all the Gulf Coast killers of the past, including Katrina and Camille, said Florida International University professor Hugh Willoughby, former director of the government’s hurricane research division.
Lynn “Nick” Shay, University of Miami meteorology and oceanography professor, flew over the gulf Thursday in a federal hurricane research plane to measure the Loop Current. He saw Gustav’s forecast track going “right down the throat” of it.
“That’s kind of the scary part here,” Shay said. “You look at this and say, ‘Boy I hope this thing doesn’t really explode,’ but it probably will.”
It happened in 2005. “Katrina went over the Loop Current and intensified rapidly,” said Mark DeMaria, a Colorado-based expert on hurricane strength with the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration.
Then less than a month later a weak tropical storm named Rita followed Katrina into the Loop Current. Thirty hours later it was a Category 5 monster.
Both Katrina and Rita later weakened—which often happens_ to Category 3 storms by landfall.
In the last several years, meteorologists have focused more attention on the Loop Current, which is only a couple of hundred miles long and not even 100 miles wide. The evidence linking it to the worst storms is beyond circumstantial, Shay said.
What’s crucial is the depth of warm water in the current—several hundred feet—because it provides continuous high-octane fuel for a storm. Hurricanes use the heat from the water to grow stronger and in the process they churn up cooler water from below, which then slows or stops the feeding process. But in the Loop Current, the deeper water is also warm and it further feeds the storm.
The Loop Current constantly shifts, growing and shrinking and sending out smaller eddies. It’s now starting to contract, but not soon enough.
On Friday, the National Hurricane Center warned: “Gustav is expected to be a large powerful hurricane as it approaches the northern gulf coast.”
The one hopeful sign is that on his hurricane flight Thursday, Shay saw a pool of extra cool water north and west of the Loop Current. That could help counteract what he fears will be rapid strengthening.
(AP)
Be respectful of others and their opinions. Inflammatory remarks and inane leftist drivel will be deleted. It ain’t about free speech, remember you’re in a private domain. My website, my prerogative.
If you can't handle using your real email address, don't bother posting a comment.
all of the people from the hurricane prediction center, the weather channel, janice dean on fox are all pretty freaked out by this one. seems almost like it may turn out to a copy of Katrina. those people better get the hell out of there because i dont want 3 MORE years of hearing about something that could have been prevented from the start.
if you’re asked to leave then get the hell out of there or else shut the hell up. you have been warned.
August 29th, 2008 at 11:18 am“Windy”?? The supervisor’s name is “Windy”?
That’s a thing of beauty right there!
August 29th, 2008 at 11:21 amstorm track is taking it WEST of New Orleans right there though! That hopefully will be the case..
August 29th, 2008 at 11:36 amyes Kurt, I too can not deal with any more Katrina whining
August 29th, 2008 at 11:50 amHeres a summary of the computer models for the storm track… http://euler.atmos.colostate.edu/~vigh/guidance/northatlantic/track_early1.png
August 29th, 2008 at 11:53 amHey Nagin——time to bug out-
don’t forget your cheese and whine!
Tell your bro POS congressman to get the cash out of his freezer—
August 29th, 2008 at 11:55 amSheeit… I would have already been gone.. at the very least I would be making tracks tonight.
August 29th, 2008 at 12:08 pmDid they replace those empty school busses yet?
Maybe they’ll use them this time around …
August 29th, 2008 at 12:14 pmAmen Kurt!
The Good Lord helps those who help themselves. Get moving people… no ones gonna carry you out.
August 29th, 2008 at 12:19 pmSince early morning the models started trending more towards the West, Jeff Masters at WeatherUnderground maintains a blog with good write-up’s and has sorts of nasty graphics - if any of you folks are along the Gulf and were unaware.
My wife & I along with the dogs are all walking-around with our sphincter muscles set to maximum torque. As the seagulls shit, we’re some 18 miles East of Galveston, a couple hundred yards off the beach.
The season does have its good points, you can most definitely count on having your intestinal tract & colon cleaned-out a couple of times or more. Gawd almighty we hate these damned things.
Our biggest problem is our elected officials became involved to ‘protected’ us by law - of course they do this by committee(or maybe I should say, by those who should be committed). So between TWC and the local news stations raising the level of panic to obscene levels, we get to toss-in ‘the committee’ calling for “mandatory” evacuations which will assuredly jam-up every road and highway - mostly with people that would never, ever be affected.
It’s just swell.
August 29th, 2008 at 2:05 pmNational Hurricane Center is forecasting this storm track about 12 to 24 hrs after the two more accurate models are forecasting it (gfs and gfdl) http://moe.met.fsu.edu/tcgengifs/
is a pretty good link, but through out the Canadian, Jap and Brit models they haven’t come close to properly forecasting storm tracks for the last several years in the Gulf of Mexico.
Another good source is www.accuweather.com and just forget about the others they are normally way out in left field.
Worst thing that could happen for anyone on the Gulf Coast is to be hit by the Northeast Quadrant of the storm. That is where the worst weather is. the wind has time to pick up speed across the open water as well as pick up massive amounts of water to drench you with. All the tornados are usually created in that quadrant. If the storm hits Grand Isle, LA the entire eastern part of the U.S. will have power shortages because their natural gas supplies will be really f’d up. 30% of the entire nation’s supply goes through Henry Hub (south of Lafayette, LA), Port Fourchon, LA and Violet, LA. I do not think that what is produced in Oklahoma, Texas, the Rockies, the West Coast, and Alaska can make up for the loss.
So if the major hubs for natural gas go down, then no feedstock for plastics, paints, cosmetics, pharmaceuticals, soap, and fertilizer is screwed.
August 29th, 2008 at 3:32 pm
drillanwr (Today I am an Alaskan!)
August 29th, 2008 at 4:53 pmYou’ll be welcome in Alaska…fit right in.
Actually, that’s a bad sign. That brings the winds directly off the water over the city, maximizing rainfall, with near-maximum windspeed and duration.
What the comparisons to Katarina should note is that the SIZE of this storm has been MUCH less throughout. Much of K’s impact was due to the sheer breadth of the system. By comparison, even at Cat 3-5 Gustav should be a “quickie”.
August 30th, 2008 at 6:06 am