U.S. Puts Brakes On Israeli Plan To Attack Iran
The American administration has rejected an Israeli request for military equipment and support that would improve Israel’s ability to attack Iran’s nuclear facilities.
A report published last week by the Washington-based Institute for Science and International Security (ISIS) states that military strikes are unlikely to destroy Iran’s centrifuge program for enriching uranium.
The Americans viewed the request, which was transmitted (and rejected) at the highest level, as a sign that Israel is in the advanced stages of preparations to attack Iran. They therefore warned Israel against attacking, saying such a strike would undermine American interests. They also demanded that Israel give them prior notice if it nevertheless decided to strike Iran.
As compensation for the requests it rejected, Washington offered to improve Israel’s defenses against surface-to-surface missiles.
Israel responded by saying it reserves the right to take whatever action it deems necessary if diplomatic efforts to halt Iran’s nuclearization fail. Senior Israeli officials had originally hoped that U.S. President George Bush would order an American strike on Iran’s nuclear facilities before leaving office, as America’s military is far better equipped to conduct such a strike successfully than is Israel’s.
Jerusalem also fears that an Israeli strike, even if it succeeded well enough to delay Iran’s nuclear development for a few years, would give Iran international legitimacy for its program, which it currently lacks. Israel, in contrast, would be portrayed as an aggressor, and would be forced to contend alone with Iran’s retaliation, which would probably include thousands of missile strikes by Iranian allies Hezbollah, Hamas and perhaps even Syria.
Recently, however, Israel has concluded that Bush is unlikely to attack, and will focus instead on ratcheting up diplomatic pressure on Tehran. It prefers to wait until this process has been exhausted, though without conceding the military option. Israel’s assumption is that Iran will continue to use delaying tactics, and may even agree to briefly suspend its uranium enrichment program in an effort to see out the rest of Bush’s term in peace.
The American-Israeli dispute over a military strike against Iran erupted during Bush’s visit to Jerusalem in May. At the time, Bush held a private meeting on the Iranian threat with Prime Minister Ehud Olmert and Defense Minister Ehud Barak, and the Israelis presented their request for certain specific items of military equipment, along with diplomatic and security backing.
Following Bush’s return to Washington, the administration studied Israel’s request, and this led it to suspect that Israel was planning to attack Iran within the next few months. The Americans therefore decided to send a strong message warning it not to do so.
U.S. National Intelligence Director Mike McConnell and Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff Mike Mullen both visited here in June and, according to the Washington Post, told senior Israeli defense officials that Iran is still far from obtaining nuclear weapons, and that an attack on Iran would undermine American interests. Therefore, they said, the U.S. would not allow Israeli planes to overfly Iraq en route to Iran.
The Americans sent a similar message to Iraq, which had objected vociferously to the idea of its air space being used for an Israeli attack on Iran.
These private messages were accompanied by a series of leaks from the Pentagon that Israel interpreted as attempts to thwart any possibility of an attack on Iran. For instance, the Americans revealed details of a major Israel Air Force exercise in the Mediterranean; they also said they doubted Israel had adequate intelligence about Iran’s nuclear facilities. In addition, Mullen spoke out publicly against an attack on Iran.
Two weeks ago, Barak visited Washington for talks with his American counterpart, Robert Gates, and Vice President Richard Cheney. Both conversations focused on Iran, but the two Americans presented conflicting views: Gates vehemently opposes an attack on Iran, while Cheney is the administration’s leading hawk.
Barak presented Israel’s assessments of the Iranian situation and warned that Iran was liable to advance its nuclear program under cover of the endless deliberations about sanctions - which have thus far produced little in the way of action. He also acknowledged that effective sanctions would require cooperation from Russia, China and India, all of which currently oppose sanctions with real teeth.
Russia, however, is considered key to efforts to isolate Iran, and Israeli officials have therefore urged their American counterparts in recent months to tone down Washington’s other disputes with Moscow to focus all its efforts on obtaining Russia’s backing against Iran. For instance, they suggested that Washington offer to drop its plan to station a missile defense system in Poland and the Czech Republic - a proposal Russia views as a threat, though Washington insists the system is aimed solely at Iran - in exchange for Russia agreeing to stiffer sanctions against Iran. However, the administration rejected this idea.
In an attempt to compensate Israel for having rejected all its proposals, Washington then offered to bolster Israel’s defenses against ballistic missiles. For instance, Gates proposed stationing an advanced radar system in Israel and linking Israel directly into America’s early warning satellite network; he also offered increased American funding for the development of two Israeli missile defense systems - the Arrow-3, an upgrade of Israel’s existing Arrow system for intercepting ballistic missiles, and Iron Dome, a system designed to intercept short-range rockets. In addition, Washington agreed to sell Israel nine Super Hercules long-range transport aircraft for $2 billion. However, it would not agree to supply Israel with any offensive systems.
Now, Israel is awaiting the outcome of the latest talks between the West and Iran, as well as a formal announcement of the opening of an American interests section in Tehran. Israel views the latter as sure proof that Washington is not planning a military strike.
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I got not much more than WTF? Is Bush leaving this for a possible obama administration? WTF?
August 13th, 2008 at 10:56 amSteve
President Bush is acting frankly Presidential. I like the GW of the past 16 months. Leave him in there.
What choice do we have an “Organ Grinding Monkey” kudos to Bash for that great caricature or Mini Me.
Stick with the known entity. Just tell Cheney to leave and take his “shop” with him.
Any fellow that flirts with the US volleyball chicks is OK with me.
August 13th, 2008 at 11:11 amWell, ladies and gentlemen, get used to having China, the USSR (yes, I said the USSR, not Russia), soon Iran and sooner Pakistan pointing their nukes at DC.
At least I will comfort of knowing the world won’t be worth living in without the US.
August 13th, 2008 at 11:25 amWTF is wrong with Bush. We need to kill jihadis and stand up the the USSR. If Reagan was president there would be no more problems. I am starting to pray for a military coup to take over this country and crush the jihadis and commies before it is too late.
August 13th, 2008 at 12:05 pmWe need to start a Georgia Airlift and protect our allies and BOMB IRAN NOW.
You tell the press one thing because you know the enemy is watching then you do the opposite.I believe this as much as I do the tooth faerie.
August 13th, 2008 at 12:07 pmIsrael will do what is their best interests. They dont need our permission just refueling for their bombers that just might happen to be in the area.
[…] Pat Dollard, “U.S. Puts Brakes On Israeli Plan To Attack Iran” […]
August 13th, 2008 at 12:07 pmI understand more clearly the offensive Russian took against Georgia - it looks like a bargaining chip for Russia, ….er, as CPL Viper says, the USSR (I agree).
I remember when Putin came into office and was asked to describe himself. His answer was “combative”. I never forgot that.
August 13th, 2008 at 12:09 pmThe Israelis will do what they feel is in their best interests with or without the cooperation or assistance of the US. In some respects this is a ‘plausible deniability’action by the administration since they have sold the Israelis 100 GBU-28 5,000 pound class ‘bunker busters’ (see http://www.worldtribune.com/worldtribune/06/front2453941.072222222.html).
The GBU-28 is not the only choice. Israel is also rumored to have begun work/testing on a low yield tactical nuke bunker buster that could also be used.
The big question is not whether Israel will use force to halt Iranian weapons development but when (I say mid-late Nov after the election)and if the US will actively oppose them by trying to take down their aircraft if they overfly Iraq.
August 13th, 2008 at 12:17 pmJUST LIKE
MIKE SAID, THIS IS POLITICAL BULLSHIT TO SAVE FACE, ISREAL DOESN’T NEED OUR PERMISSION. 
August 13th, 2008 at 12:23 pm
http://www.willthomasonline.net/willthomasonline/US_Veteran_Reveals_Atomic_Bombs.html
August 13th, 2008 at 12:40 pmMaybe it’s clever subterfuge. I just saw this.
http://www.lucianne.com/threads2.asp?artnum=417389
August 13th, 2008 at 12:44 pmIt looks like America wants to bomb Iran itself. http://avideditor.wordpress.com/2008/08/11/is-the-us-finally-going-to-bomb-iran-a-massive-us-naval-armada-heads-for-iran/
So take back what I said before
August 13th, 2008 at 12:48 pmIt looks like the US is going to bomb Iran itself. It is moving the fleets in. http://avideditor.wordpress.com/2008/08/11/is-the-us-finally-going-to-bomb-iran-a-massive-us-naval-armada-heads-for-iran/
August 13th, 2008 at 12:49 pmFound this … an interesting and reasonably unbiased assessment of the Israelis’ ability to carry out such a strike … http://web.mit.edu/ssp/Publications/working_papers/wp_06-1.pdf
August 13th, 2008 at 1:00 pmThe Bush and Condi show have been screwing Israel since Israel fucked up 2 years ago.
August 13th, 2008 at 1:23 pmHas anyone considered President Bush may be planting stories like this to throw off Iran and Russia? While the World is looking at Georgia, now may be a good time to actually hit Iran.
August 13th, 2008 at 2:33 pmIf the US honestly considers jihadi Iran to be a serious threat to peace, why the f@ck wdn’t we use our superlative positioning (Iraq, Afgh, Turkey, plus stupendous carrier groups) to lay a lesson on the mullahs that wd take 10 years for the smoke to clear? Our forces cd do more damage in 1 day than Israel cd do in a month, with far less chance of losing planes.
And which meddling neighbor is gonna reach out to help the mullahs fight back? IRAN?
Unfortunately, for this very serious challenge, the leadership of the US AND Israel has “been weighed in the balance and found wanting.” Sorry, folks, but Ahmedinejad is going to outlast Bush.
August 13th, 2008 at 5:26 pmYa right! When Israel wants to attack, she will. No doubt about it; this is for freaking sure.
August 13th, 2008 at 5:45 pmHaaretz is a leftist paper, pretty much up there with the NYT
or the BBC. So I’ll take this with five grains of salt.
I don’t think it’s possible to know what President Bush will do.
Speculation on that is useless.
These three things I know:
1) Iran is close to getting nuclear weapons, if they don’t already
have one or two.
2) Israel occupies a seat that Bush will not have to sit in. As a
result of that, Israel will not allow Iran to have an atomic bomb.
3) Our election on Nov 4th is the decision point.
August 14th, 2008 at 5:34 amI smell the stench of the State Department…
The Israelis don’t need our permission to save their asses.
August 14th, 2008 at 8:15 am