Pat Dollard

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By Heejin Koo

Sept. 13 2008 (Bloomberg) — North Korean leader Kim Jong Il’s grip on power may be weakened by ill health and the communist regime will go through a period of “transition” as he recovers over the coming months, a South Korean government official said.

It will take three to five months to be quite sure how stable his condition may be, in terms of ruling his country, according to a South Korean government official who declined to be identified, because of the sensitivity of the issue. Kim’s hold over North Korea may not “be what it used to be,” even with a full recovery, he said.

Kim, who has led the impoverished nation of 23 million people since his father Kim Il Sung died in 1994, failed to attend 60th anniversary celebrations of North Korea’s founding on Sept. 9, fueling speculation about his health. A U.S. intelligence official, who declined to be identified, said earlier this week the communist leader may have suffered a stroke in the past month.

North Korean officials deny their 66-year-old leader is sick.

The South Korean official said the government in Seoul has intelligence that Kim suffered a “serious health setback.”

“We believe that he may have undergone serious surgery in the last three weeks,” he added.

South Korea has received some intelligence that Kim is recovering, Unification Ministry spokesman Kim Ho Nyoun said yesterday. “Various agencies are trying to verify the information, and we are keeping a close eye on developments,” he told reporters.

The two countries are still technically at war after their 1950-53 conflict ended without a peace agreement.