The Red And Blue: Electoral College Looking More For McCain Than For Hussein
Guess ya just gotta go out of our country’s news sources (MSM) to find stuff like this …
Remember during the primaries all you heard was how, even though Hillary Clinton had the popular vote among delegates, but that Obama had more superdelegates? The MSM kept hammering that point. It was in just about every report on the democrat primary.
However, this report, from a news site overseas in India, of all places, has an American Electoral College speculation about the McCain vs. Obama POTUS race. I have seen in the last day or two small blurbs regarding this from other sources … but here’s my thoughts on this ‘cover-up’ by the media.
1. Rule of thumb #1 when dealing with democrats/liberals … If they say “Well, it’s going to be a very close race” … that is code-speak for “Our guy will probably lose and we’ll have to take the republicans to court in key states where our ACORN-type operatives didn’t quite get the job done … and our huge team of lawyers have already typed up the papers and will just need to file them formally in a split second’s notice …”
2. Rule of thumb #2 (most of us DO have two) when dealing with democrats/liberals … If they say things such as, “Well, everyone has done it (see computer hacking guilt, for instance) … BOTH sides are being nasty … ” They are not only guilty as hell, but being worse at it then the other side is or has been.
Anyhow, try as hard as they may, the MSM isn’t doing so well campaigning for their Messiah as they think, according to some of the non-leftist American polling:
US Electoral College Forecast Shows McCain Is Way Ahead Of Obama
From Asia News International - (Daily India)
Washington, Sept.18: The latest forecast of the Electoral College suggests that John McCain is way ahead of his Democratic rival Barack Obama.
The research to be presented at the annual meeting of the Institute for Operations Research and the Management Sciences on between October 13 and 15, less than three weeks before the election, says that as of September 16, the margin in electoral votes could be as high as 282.8 votes for Senator John McCain against 255.2 for Senator Barack Obama, depending on the forecasting scenario.
Operations researcher Sheldon H. Jacobson, a professor at the University of Illinois at Urbana Champaign, along with a group of students and collaborators at Southern Illinois University-Edwardsville, created http://election08.cs.uiuc.edu/, a math model that dynamically forecasts the outcome of the election.
Over 4,000 analysts and experts in analytics are expected to attend next month’s meetings. Jacobson’s model applies a mathematical model to state polling data, using a dynamic programming algorithm to forecast electoral results.
“The results from the 2000 and 2004 presidential election suggested that it can be difficult to predict the winner of the presidential election based on popular vote,” says Jacobson.
“In fact, it is possible that the popular vote and the Electoral College vote can lead to significantly different results,” he adds.
Jacobson’s model employs Bayesian estimators (which help scientists make decisions when conditions are uncertain) to determine the probability that a candidate will win each state.
He has obtained state polling data from the Rasmussen Reports, the Quinnipiac University Poll, and SurveyUSA.
State-by-state probabilities are then used in a dynamic programming algorithm to determine a probability distribution for the number of Electoral College votes that each candidate will win in the 2008 presidential election.
Professor Jacobson believes that this model provides a more realistic method of predicting the results.
“We take into account ’safe’ states- states that each candidate is basically guaranteed to win,” says Jacobson.
In the model, a safe state is one in which the candidate has an 85% chance or greater of winning.
Jacobson’s model also factors in undecided voters. It accounts for five different voting scenarios involving undecided voters, each considered individually.
A “neutral” scenario provides an unbiased handling of undecided voters. “Strong Republican” and “Strong Democratic” scenarios provide two extreme envelopes around which results can be judged and evaluated, while “Mild Republican” and “Mild Democratic” provide more realistic possibilities if late-breaking information surfaces that shift voter preferences.
“Undecided voters can have a significant role on the outcome of the election. In fact, they are likely to be the ultimate deciders of who will win this election,” says Jacobson.
 |
|
