Pat Dollard | Young Americans

by Mosheh Oinounou - (FOX)

DENVER, CO — The McCain campaign will be shifting resources away from Michigan this week and pivoting to defense as Obama makes gains in a number of red states the GOPer needs to win, campaign officials confirm to Fox.

The campaign will cease airing ads in the Wolverine state and move some staff to other states, acknowledging now that it will likely remain in Democratic hands this November.

The last Republican to win Michigan was George H.W. Bush in 1988 but until recently, McCain was bullish about his prospects in the Wolverine state. Advisers had argued that the Michigan governor’s low favorability ratings and her history of tax increases as well as the state’s record high unemployment rate would play into McCain’s hands as he sought to cast Obama as a tax-raising liberal.

Since the convention early last month, McCain has made four campaign stops in the state in four weeks; a 9/5 rally in Sterling Heights, a 9/17 plant tour in Lake Orion, a 9/17 town hall in Grand Rapids and a 9/23 press conference in Freeland.

Campaign advisers tell Fox today that they played in MI to spread the field on Obama/Biden and make Democrats defend a Blue state with money and time (e.g. Obama held rallies in MI today). The GOP ticket argues that Obama has already abandoned a number of states from their original 50 state strategy including GA, MT and AK.

McCain camp thinking: If McCain/Palin win FL, MO, NC, VA, IN and OH - all states Republicans have won for decades -they say that puts them at 260 electoral votes. The GOP would need to find 10 electoral votes from a combination of CO, NV, NM, NH, MN, WI, and PA.

Meanwhile Obama campaign officials argue that if they keep all Kerry states blue and add New Mexico and Iowa, which looks increasingly likely, they would be at 264 electoral votes and only need to then lock up one of the following: NV, OH, CO, FL, VA, NC, IN. (Note that NV represent 5 electoral votes which would mean an electoral tie that throws the election to the US House but would likely favor Obama next year.)

John Hinderaker and Paul Mirengoff @ Powerline note:

The strange thing about pulling out of Michigan is that, according to the publicly available polls, McCain’s deficit there is only a little larger than his deficit nationally. For example, the latest Michigan poll has Obama up by 10 percentage points, while the latest RCP average has him up by almost 7 points. Clearly, if Obama wins nationally by 7 points, he’ll carry Michigan. But shouldn’t the McCain campaign base its state-by-state thinking on the assumption that McCain will be competitive nationally, since that’s the only scenario under which he can be elected in any event?

The McCain camp must believe that it can’t win the economic argument and, as a result, can’t win Michigan even in a close race. Unfortunately, if McCain can’t at least hold his own in the economic argument, the race may not be particularly close.

Rasmussen Poll:

Thursday, October 02, 2008

The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll for Thursday shows Barack Obama attracting 51% of the vote while John McCain earns 44%. This seven-point advantage is the largest yet enjoyed by Obama during Election 2008 and is consistent with the stable lead he has enjoyed over the past week. For each of the past seven days, Obama has been at 50% or 51% and McCain has been at 44% or 45%.

Forty-two percent (42%) of voters are certain they will vote for Obama and will not change their mind. Thirty-eight percent (38%) say the same about McCain. Fifteen percent (15%) express a preference for one of the candidates but could still change their mind. Just over 1% remain committed to a third-party candidate while 3% remain undecided.

Nationally, Obama is viewed favorably by 58% of voters, McCain by 52%. This is McCain’s lowest his favorable rating since June 15. [ ... ]