Polls Say McCain Out? It Was Gore 51% Bush 40% In October 2000
Today’s Gallup Tracking Poll has Obama 51% and McCain 41%…
The Gallup Poll during the first week of October 2000 had Gore at 51% and George Bush at 40%. In October of 1980 (my first year to vote), Carter was leading Reagan up until the last debate. In 1948, Dewey was leading Truman in October Polls 49.5% to 44.5%.
Moral of the story?
Don’t count McCain out just because of the polls.
There is one other thing to factor in here with regard to the polls that is unique in this Presidential Election and that is The Bradley Effect which in essence says this:
The Bradley effect, less commonly called the Wilder effect, is a proposed explanation for a discrepancy between voter opinion polls and election outcomes in American political campaigns when a white candidate and a non-white candidate run against each other. Named for Tom Bradley, an African-American who lost the 1982 California governor’s race despite being ahead in some voter polls, the Bradley effect refers to an alleged tendency on the part of some voters to tell pollsters that they are undecided or likely to vote for a black candidate, and yet, on election day, vote for his/her white opponent.
The theory of the Bradley effect is that the inaccurate polls have been skewed by the phenomenon of social desirability bias. Specifically, some white voters give inaccurate polling responses for fear that, by stating their true preference, they will open themselves to criticism of racial motivation. The reluctance to give accurate polling answers has sometimes extended to post-election exit polls as well. The race of the pollster conducting the interview may factor in to voters’ answers.
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