Pat Dollard | Young Americans

Alright, all you right wingnuts with butts and guns …

They talk about this Christmas … Yeah, Me, my hubby, the two older daughters, and the one son-in-law have decided to pull one name out of the hat at Thanksgiving dinner so we aren’t buying for everyone. Limiting the price to spend at no more than $50 (if that) … no outside gifts for anyone … concentrating any other gifts on Lizzie, Mickey, and Sophia.

But it goes beyond that.

We are all enjoying gas at the pump at below or at $2/gal. Nice enough … but that’s just one “shoe” … It ain’t gonna last. We will watch it climb again … soon. And this doesn’t count the fact that, and you KNOW it, the dem Congress WILL be slamming that door shut and locking it on off shore oil drilling … and any other domestic drilling. They intend to nationalize our oil industry.

OPEC May Cut 1 Million Barrels in Cairo, Survey Shows

By Grant Smith and Mark Shenk

Nov. 14 (Bloomberg) — OPEC, supplier of more than 40 percent of the world’s oil, will probably announce plans to lower supply for the third time in as many months to prevent prices plunging toward $50 a barrel, a Bloomberg survey showed.

The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries will cut output at a meeting in Cairo on Nov. 29, according to 17 of 18 analysts surveyed by Bloomberg. Fourteen of the analysts predict the reduction will be 1 million barrels a day or more.

“Given the rapid deterioration in the flow of economic data, and implications for further oil demand weakness, OPEC might have to cut by at least an extra 1 million barrels in order to catch the market’s attention,” said Harry Tchilinguirian, senior oil analyst at BNP Paribas SA in London.

The Cairo summit, originally intended for only the group’s Arab members, was upgraded to a full OPEC meeting yesterday as oil prices dropped to a 21-month low.

Ministers from Algeria and Iran have said that production may have to be cut. The group announced a reduction of 1.5 million barrels a day on Oct. 24, on top of an earlier resolution in September to pare excess supplies by observing official output quotas.

`No Effect’

“In order to strengthen prices, OPEC is very likely to recommend another production cut as the two previous ones had no effect,” Iran’s OPEC governor Mohammad Ali Khatibi told the Mehr News agency in Tehran today. “The market is in turmoil.”

OPEC President and Algerian Oil Minister Chakib Khelil told reporters in Algiers on Nov. 8 that an output reduction may be necessary. After Cairo, the group’s next scheduled conference is in Oran, Algeria, on Dec. 17.

Oil futures in New York fell to $54.67 a barrel yesterday, the lowest since Jan. 30, 2007, and more than $90 below the record of $147.27 touched on July 11. Crude for December delivery traded at $56.44 as of 12:02 p.m. local time today.

“Saudi Arabia, the UAE, and Kuwait might be happy with lower prices to help the global economy but will probably go along with an agreement for the sake of OPEC unity,” said Peter Beutel, president of energy consultant Cameron Hanover Inc. in New Canaan, Connecticut.

“I expect there will be another production cut announced in Cairo unless we have a massive rally before then,” Beutel said.

OPEC is still in the process of implementing supply restrictions announced at its September and October summits.

Monthly Output

Eleven members subject to output quotas collectively pumped 29.095 million barrels a day last month, according to Bloomberg estimates, compared with an official ceiling of 28.8 million barrels a day.

The group will need to scale back production by about 1.2 million barrels a day to complete output cuts implied since September, industry consultant Oil Movements said yesterday. OPEC’s current target, which took effect Nov. 1, is 27.3 million barrels a day.

Predictions by analysts expecting OPEC to cut this month range between 500,000 barrels a day and 3 million barrels a day. The one analyst who doesn’t expect an output reduction in Cairo said the group may signal at the meeting that it will reduce production in December.

Others said the producer group needs to adopt a degree of caution given the slowing global economy.

“To retain credibility, they’re going to have to go for 1 million barrels a day” in Cairo, said John Hall, managing director of London-based consultants John Hall Associates Ltd. “It’ll send a message, but OPEC has to recognize the world is moving into recession, and it was high oil prices that set off the initial recessionary move this year.”

Up and Coming
Producer, Consumer Prices Ahead In Upcoming Week

Mark Lieberman, Senior Economist

FOXBusiness

An otherwise quiet week came to a jarring conclusion — and may be a perfect lead-in to another week of potentially discouraging economic indicators.

The most significant data in the week just ended came on Thursday and Friday. On Thursday, the Labor Department reported initial claims for unemployment insurance jumped past 500,000, the first time above that level since 2001 and only the second time since 1992. On Friday, the Commerce Department reported that total retail sales tumbled 2.8% in October, the steepest month-to-month decline in retail sales since the Department of Commerce data series began in 1983.

Those two data points reinforced, or were reinforced by, preliminary November results of the University of Michigan’s consumer sentiment survey, which barely budged from October lows.

The retail data may require an asterisk. Commerce reports retail sales nominally — that is, without adjusting for inflation. As a result, price changes, not preferences, show up in the report. Specifically, total retail sales dropped about $10.4 billion from September to October but gasoline sales themselves fell $5.5 billion a drop of about 13%. The average price of a gallon of gasoline fell almost 18% from September to October.

Without the gasoline effect, retail sales still would have declined $4.8 billion, or 1.5%, from September to October, the steepest plunge in sales excluding gasoline since August 2005. That still betrays weakness in the economy, which will likely show up in the report on fourth-quarter Gross Domestic Product. Personal consumption represents about 70% of GDP and retail sales (including gasoline) about 40% of personal consumption, so the influence can’t be overstated. Indeed, the weak retail sales report could have further-reaching impact among retailers who have already reduced their expectations for holiday sales.

Those lower forecasts mean reduced hiring for the holiday season, which will do little to relieve already intense labor market pressures.

(Continue Reading)

Credit Markets Stalled While Waiting Game Played

by Russell Roberts - (NPR)

Secretary Paulson might be the only person in America who worries that consumers haven’t borrowed enough money. He says the consumer credit market has “ground to a halt.” He wants to get it going again — maybe if we all just buy enough cars and use our credit cards, the economy will come back to life.

Paulson is also upset that banks aren’t doing enough. He’s given them all this money and they’re sitting on it.

He doesn’t seem to realize that these two phenomena are really one and the same.

He can inject all the money he wants into the consumer credit market and it isn’t going to make us want to buy cars or use our credit cards.

We did enough of that for a while. More than enough. Too much. And right now, before we spend, spend, spend, we’re going to wait and see if we keep our jobs.

But we’re also going to wait and see what the government’s going to do next. Nobody knows, and that evidently includes the secretary of the treasury.

When no one knows how the rules of the game are going to change — and they seem to change from week to week — who wants to take a risk? Who wants to borrow money? Who wants to invest? Business and consumers are hunkering down, waiting for the storm of change to pass.

The problem isn’t liquidity.

It’s uncertainty.

Paulson doesn’t realize that his erratic attempts at creating liquidity are creating the uncertainty that makes liquidity meaningless.

And his erratic moves elsewhere just add to the uncertainty. A few days ago, he announced that he was “exploring strategies” to use the TARP (the Troubled Asset Relief Program) for “foreclosure mitigation.” Then came the news that, no, the FDIC would have to go it alone in helping mortgage workouts. No TARP for them.

I guess he’s done exploring. At least until tomorrow.

As the TARP spreads, the cost will keep rising. Remember the talk about how the government might even profit from its $700 billion “investment?” (Insert hollow laugh here.)

I’d feel better if the money spent so far was helping. But there’s no evidence that it is achieving what Paulson intends.

And who’s going to pay for all of this? Those who lived within their means, who went with the smaller house, who waited a few more years to get that new car, who took a part-time job rather than borrowing even more money to pay for college. Suckers. You missed out on the thrills and now you’re going to be paying the bills. The prudent will be paying for the imprudent for a long time.

The great economist F.A. Hayek wrote that “the curious task of economics is to demonstrate to men how little they really know about what they imagine they can design.”

With each improvisation, Secretary Paulson is proving how little he knows about what he imagines he can design.

But just remember, my friends … No matter how bad it gets, it’s always better than it was in hard times in the past.

And we pray harder … Hopefully.

Spam Turns Serious and Hormel Turns Out More

By ANDREW MARTIN - (NYTimes)

AUSTIN, Minn. — The economy is in tatters and, for millions of people, the future is uncertain. But for some employees at the Hormel Foods Corporation plant here, times have never been better. They are working at a furious pace and piling up all the overtime they want.

The workers make Spam, perhaps the emblematic hard-times food in the American pantry.

Through war and recession, Americans have turned to the glistening canned product from Hormel as a way to save money while still putting something that resembles meat on the table. Now, in a sign of the times, it is happening again, and Hormel is cranking out as much Spam as its workers can produce.

In a factory that abuts Interstate 90, two shifts of workers have been making Spam seven days a week since July, and they have been told that the relentless work schedule will continue indefinitely.

Spam, a gelatinous 12-ounce rectangle of spiced ham and pork, may be among the world’s most maligned foods, dismissed as inedible by food elites and skewered by comedians who have offered smart-alecky theories on its name (one G-rated example: Something Posing As Meat).

But these days, consumers are rediscovering relatively cheap foods, Spam among them. A 12-ounce can of Spam, marketed as “Crazy Tasty,” costs about $2.40. “People are realizing it’s not that bad a product,” said Dan Johnson, 55, who operates a 70-foot-high Spam oven.

Hormel declined to cooperate with this article, but several of its workers were interviewed here recently with the help of their union, the United Food and Commercial Workers International Union Local 9. Slumped in chairs at the union hall after making 149,950 cans of Spam on the day shift, several workers said they been through boom times before — but nothing like this.

Spam “seems to do well when hard times hit,” said Dan Bartel, business agent for the union local. “We’ll probably see Spam lines instead of soup lines.”

Even as consumers are cutting back on all sorts of goods, Spam is among a select group of thrifty grocery items that are selling steadily.

Pancake mixes and instant potatoes are booming. So are vitamins, fruit and vegetable preservatives and beer, according to data from October compiled by Information Resources, a market research firm.

“We’ve seen a double-digit increase in the sale of rice and beans,” said Teena Massingill, spokeswoman for the Safeway grocery chain, in an e-mail message. “They’re real belly fillers.”

Kraft Foods said recently that some of its value-oriented products like macaroni and cheese, Jell-O and Kool-Aid were experiencing robust growth. And sales are still growing, if not booming, for Velveeta, a Kraft product that bears the same passing resemblance to cheese as Spam bears to ham.

Spam holds a special place in America’s culinary history, both as a source of humor and of cheap protein during hard times.

Invented during the Great Depression by Jay Hormel, the son of the company’s founder, Spam is a combination of ham, pork, sugar, salt, water, potato starch and a “hint” of sodium nitrate “to help Spam keep its gorgeous pink color,” according to Hormel’s Web site for the product.

Because it is vacuum-sealed in a can and does not require refrigeration, Spam can last for years. Hormel says “it’s like meat with a pause button.”

During World War II, Spam became a staple for Allied troops overseas. They introduced it to local residents, and it remains popular in many parts of the world where the troops were stationed.

Spam developed a camp following in the 1970s, mainly because of Monty Python, the English comedy troupe. In a 1970 skit, a couple tried to order breakfast at a cafe featuring Spam in nearly every entree, like “Spam, Eggs, Sausage and Spam.” The diners were eventually drowned out by a group of Vikings singing, “Spam, lovely Spam, wonderful Spam.”

(Familiar with the skit, Internet pioneers labeled junk e-mail “spam” because it overwhelmed other dialogue, according to one theory.)

Here in Austin, local officials have tried to capitalize on Spam’s kitschy cultural status, even if a decidedly unpleasant odor hangs over the town (a slaughterhouse next to the Hormel plant butchers 19,000 hogs a day). Austin advertises itself as “Spamtown,” and it boasts 13 restaurants with Spam on the menu.

Jerry’s Other Place sells a Spamburger for $6.29. Johnny’s “Spamarama” menu includes eggs Benedict with Spam for $7.35. At Steve’s Pizza, a medium Spam and pineapple pizza costs $11.58.

“There are all kinds of people who have an emotional connection to Spam,” said Gil Gutknecht Jr., the former Minnesota congressman, who was in the gift shop at the Spam Museum buying a Spam tie, sweatshirt and earrings. Mr. Gutknecht recalled that he once served as a judge in a Spam recipe contest.

“The best thing was Spam brownies,” he said, with more or less a straight face.

No independent data provider compiles sales figures that include all the outlets where Spam is sold, including foreign stores, so it is not clear exactly how much sales are up. Hormel’s chief executive, Jeffrey M. Ettinger, said in September that they were growing by double digits.

The company would not discuss more recent sales of the product or permit a tour of the Spam factory, citing rules that Hormel said prevented it from speaking ahead of a forthcoming earnings report.

However, Hormel executives appear to be banking on the theory that Spam fits nicely into recession budgets. Workers on the Spam line in Austin — more than 40 of them work two shifts —see no signs that their work schedule will let up.

“We are scheduled to work every day except Thanksgiving and Christmas,” said Darwin Sellers, 56, a Spam “formulator” who adds salt, sugar and nitrates to batches of Spam. “Mr. Ettinger is negotiating with the man upstairs to get us to work eight days a week.”

Mr. Sellers said he had not seen much of his family in recent months, but the grueling schedule had been good for his checkbook. He bought a new television and planned to replace a 20-year-old refrigerator.

Unlike his colleagues though, he has no plans to stock up on Spam. “It’s not something I’ve ever developed a taste for,” he said.

A rising segment of the public, it seems, does have a taste for Spam, which is available in several varieties, including Spam Low Sodium, Spam with Cheese and Spam Hot & Spicy.

James Bate, a 48-year-old sausage maker, was buying it at Wal-Mart in Cleveland recently. Not only was it cheap, but he said it brought back fond memories of his grandfather’s making him Spam sandwiches.

“You can mix it with tomatoes and onions and make a good meal out of it,” he said. “A little bit of this stuff goes a long way.”

I hate Spam, BTW … We did a lot of camping when I was a kid, and my Mother thought Spam was the answer to every damn meal … To this day I cannot look at the lump of fat and gel out of the cute little blue can with the key.

Anyhow, there’s always sex …

THAT seems to truck on no matter what the economic climate …

Change You Can Conceive In
Could euphoric Obama fans be sparking a baby boom?

By Jessica Bennett - News Week

The theory is almost too perfect to be true. Barack Obama, the son of politically progressive parents, was born Aug. 4, 1961—almost nine months to the day after John F. Kennedy was elected to the White House. Is it possible Obama was conceived on that historic night?

And if so, could history repeat itself? In the hours and days since Obama’s victory, many of his exhilarated supporters have been, shall we say, in the mood for love. And though it’s too soon to know for sure, experts aren’t ruling out the possibility of an Obama baby boom—the kind of blip in the national birth rate that often follows a seismic event, whether it’s scary (a terrorist attack) or celebratory (the end of World War II). “The mood of the country and the optimism about leadership is always somewhat related to birth rates,” says Dr. Manny Alvarez, chief of reproductive science at Hackensack University Medical Center in New Jersey. “I’m gearing up for a healthy increase.”

Hope and euphoria, says University of Washington sociologist Pepper Schwartz, are a serious aphrodisiac. And voters under 30 went for Obama by a margin of 2 to 1. When you combine those two elements—randy people of child-bearing age—the likely result is what the online Urban Dictionary has already dubbed “Obama Babies” : children “conceived after Obama was proclaimed President, by way of celebratory sex.” “If the amount of alcohol, happy people and major functions on election night is any indication, I suspect we’ll indeed see a boom,” says 25-year-old Brandon Mendelson, a graduate student in Albany, N.Y., who says he changed his vote at the last minute because “I wanted to be able to tell our future children that we voted for Obama.”

Anecdotal evidence abounds. “On election night, my husband had managed to down a bottle and a half of wine in celebration and he was all about making an ‘Obama election baby’,” Abbi Whitaker, 32, of Reno, Nev., told NEWSWEEK. “He thought it would be the coolest thing.” In Oakland, jewelry designer Meghan Connolly Haupt, who, with her husband, has been trying for a baby for about eight months, says she “was optimistic when I realized election night coincided with my ovulation time.” And in Chicago, where 28-year-old Chip Bouchard—a former Hillary supporter—attended Obama’s acceptance speech, he says he looked over at his boyfriend, Chris, and thought: “This [is] the president under whom I [want to] get married and adopt a baby.”

Not everyone’s experiences were quite as earnest. During one round of election-fueled romance, says Eric Davis, 37, of Minneapolis, “my wife accidentally said, ‘Oh, Obama!’” Craigslist boards in various cities swiftly filled with posts from people looking to form impromptu, um, political action committees. “Feel great from Obama win, but now need to expend this positive energy,” wrote one 30-year-old Manhattanite. “Obama! Red Wine! Smooching!” promised another. (And from the too-much-information department, sex shop Babeland, which has stores in Seattle, New York and Los Angeles, reports a 26 percent sales increase since Election Day.)

In order for an Obama baby boom to come to fruition, the sex craze will have to last a while. In August of 2007, the last year for which August birth records are available, Americans bore some 390,000 babies. In demographic terms, to achieve even a tiny boom, the number of babies conceived this month will need to exceed that figure. “So the question,” says Florida State University demographer Woody Carlson, “is whether or not this catches on. If it’s just a moment of excitement and then everybody goes back to being depressed, then we may see a tiny birth spike. But if it continues, then the birth rate next August”—nine months from now—”could be the start of something big.” So get busy, folks. One of these kids might just grow up to be president.