It’s All About Iran
May 16, 2009 4 Comments ›› Pat Dollard
President Barack Obama sits down Monday with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu in hopes of reviving the Israeli-Palestinian peace process, largely dormant for years.
In reality, the topic that’s likely to dominate their meeting is slightly different and no less complex – Iran.
Officials on both sides are hopeful that the two leaders will hammer out a broad understanding on dealing with Tehran over the next year.
But on key questions about the tactics and timing of dealing with Iran’s nuclear program, the two men have deep differences, almost certainly more than even an Oval Office meeting and an intimate lunch can fully resolve.
It comes down to pressuring Iran – how much and how quickly – and how the two resolve that question may well determine whether there’s hope of bringing the Israelis and the Palestinians to the table in the early part of Obama’s term.
U.S. officials favor a slow approach to Iran, letting Obama’s diplomatic outreach to Tehran continue for months, and, if that fails, resorting to tougher economic sanctions aimed at gradually isolating the regime. Top administration officials have signaled deep unease about eventually resorting to military strikes against Iranian nuclear facilities, if diplomacy and sanctions fail.
Netanyahu agrees on the need to isolate Tehran, but worries that the prolonged U.S. timetable for achieving that goal will give Iran more time to progress on its nuclear program. He favors moving to tough sanctions sooner and, if necessary, airstrikes aimed at setting the Iranian program back years.
Israeli officials especially worry that Obama, in his quest for a diplomatic deal, might accept something less than verifiable agreement that would deny Iran the capability of producing nuclear weapons.
“We are definitely concerned that the Iranians are always playing for time, and time is running out,” said an Israeli official involved in the preparations for the Obama-Netanyahu meeting.
How candidly Obama and Netanyahu will discuss these differences Monday isn’t clear. Officials from both sides have emphasized that the goal of the meeting is to reaffirm U.S.-Israeli ties and deepen the relationship between the new president and Netanyahu, who first met with Obama when he was still in the Senate.
Obama also will be meeting in Washington in coming weeks with Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak and Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas, as part of a broad effort to give new life to the Israeli-Palestinian peace process.
U.S. officials also have made clear in recent weeks that they plan to ask Netanyahu to take steps to revive Israeli-Palestinian peace talks, by freezing settlements or easing restrictions on Palestinians on the West Bank. Progress on the peace process is a key part of the administration’s strategy for putting pressure on Iran, U.S. officials argue.
U.S. officials would like Netanyahu to make a public declaration of support for a two-state solution while he is in Washington, but it’s not clear if he will do so.
If Netanyahu and Abbas can resume talks and cooperation on the U.S.-backed roadmap toward Palestinian statehood, it will further isolate Tehran, which backs anti-Israeli terror groups like Hamas.
Senior U.S. officials involved in preparations for the Netanyahu meeting acknowledged Saturday that Iran’s nuclear program would be a major topic of discussion, but they played down the differences between the two governments about how to proceed.
On Iran, Obama “is not just interested in talking for talking’s sake,” said a senior administration official, referring to the Israeli concerns about the administration’s strategy. The U.S. isn’t inclined to set a hard deadline for how long it intends to wait for Tehran to respond to its offer of better ties in return for halting its nuclear program,
“I don’t think we’ll be putting a specific timeline on it, but I think there’s a recognition of the urgency of it as it relates to our interests and our friends’ interests,” another senior official said, referring to Israel.
Officials do not dispute reports that they plan to wait until the fall to decide if the outreach to Iran is producing results. If not, Obama could give a speech at the annual opening of the United Nations General Assembly in New York calling for tighter economic sanctions.
If the talks Monday go well, some U.S. officials say, Obama may be able to gain Netanyahu’s support for allowing the U.S. strategy for Iran to unfold over that rough timetable.
On the most sensitive question-whether Israel would launch a airstrike against Iranian nuclear facilities-U.S. officials they are not expecting Netanyahu to offer flat assurances that Israel won’t bomb the Iranian facilities.
At best, they say, Netanyahu in closely held discussions with Obama might promise not to act without prior consultation with Washington and only after allowing time for the U.S. strategy to work.
