The Numbers Don’t Lie: The Secret Poll James Carville Doesn’t Want You To See
Aug 6, 2009 4 Comments ›› Erik Wong
Polling firms may not have many fans, but if Democracy Corps has any, they include me. I like them because regardless of the national mood, James Carville and Stan Greenberg seem consistently to find that things are going swimmingly for Democrats. Take a look at the headlines for their polls this year:
Don’t Believe the Hype: Support for Health Care Reform is Still Fundamentally Strong
New Survey Shows Cheney, Sotomayor Debates Threaten to Further Isolate GOP
Obama Closes the Democrats’ Historical National Security Gap
Americans See a Lot to Appreciate in Obama’s First 100 Days
As Specter Leaves the GOP, New Surveys Show Republicans in Disarray
It’s rare to see a headline that doesn’t radiate warm good news for Democrats, and it’s rare to see one of their polls not touted across most of the liberal blogs. For that reason, I was surprised today to notice a survey that lacked a headline, and that had not been splashed all across the Leftosphere. It was released two days ago, and it carries nothing more than the headline ‘National Survey,’ without a single line of narration or interpretation. That’s extremely unusual for the site – as you can see just by glancing at previous surveys.
So what’s in the ‘secret poll?’ I bet you get it in one.
By 53%-42%, those who are likely to vote in the 2010 election say Barack Obama is ‘too liberal.’
They believe by a margin of 53%-40% that he will ‘raise my taxes.’
By 55%-42% they say ‘he promises things that sound good’ but that won’t get done.
By a whopping 65%-32%, likely voters call Obama a ‘big spender.’
The news for ‘Democrats’ more generally is no better.
On the economy, likely voters give ‘the Democrats’ just a 6 point edge (45%-39%) over ‘the Republicans.’
Likely voters give the Republicans an 11 point edge (49%-38%) on taxes.
The Republicans have a 13 point lead (47%-34%) on government spending.
Republicans have a 5 point edge (42%-37%) on the budget deficit.
Furthermore, by a margin of 54%-34%, likely voters believe Obama is not keeping his promise to ‘save or create 3 million jobs.’ And by 51%-43%, likely voters are more worried that the government will ‘spend too much,’ rather than ‘fail to take strong action on important priorities.’
All-in-all, this is terrible news for Democrats. Carville and Greenberg confirm that across a range of issues, support for Democrats has fallen dramatically. This becomes clearer when you look at the findings among what Carville and Greenberg term as ‘drop off’ voters – those who voted in 2008, but are less likely to turn out in 2010. While likely 2010 voters give Democrats a 5 point edge on the economy, the advantage among ‘drop off’ voters is 25%. Among likely voters Democrats trail by 11 on taxes; among drop off voters they lead by 20 points. The pattern holds across a range of questions. Across-the-board, those who voted in 2008 but will likely miss 2010 are far more favorable to Democrats and Obama than other voters.
The Carville-Greenberg poll – published on the site, but not publicized and not widely noticed – confirms both a significant shift toward Republicans on the issues, and a significant gap in enthusiasm between voters inclined to Obama and those inclined against. For those used to reading the poll for good news, the ‘radio silence’ should be a sign of serious trouble.
