Both Parties To Readjust And Set Sights On 2010 Strategy
Nov 4, 2009 1 Comment ›› Erik Wong
WASHINGTON — Republicans and Democrats began readjusting strategies as they sifted through the results of Tuesday’s off-year elections for clues about how to gain ground in next year’s nationwide Congressional campaigns.
In the meantime, the debate in Washington on issues such as health care, climate change and immigration could be affected by the way the political calculus was changed by Tuesday’s results. Democrats remain solidly in control of Congress. But some Democrats who must seek re-election in conservative districts next year could shy away from more liberal proposals, even as some liberals argue that the best way to win is to get bills to Mr. Obama’s desk before the next election threatens the party’s legislative majority.
Republicans scored dramatic wins in the Virginia and New Jersey governor’s races with campaigns that tapped into voters’ economic unease. But party officials and strategists are still looking for the best formula to harness an energized conservative activist base while at the same time reaching out to voters in the middle.
Complicating that task: a conservative who ran on a platform of shrinking government and opposing President Barack Obama’s economic policies lost to a Democrat in New York’s 23rd congressional district, which has been a safe Republican seat for more than a century.
Democrats had the more urgent concerns. In New Jersey and Virginia, many independents swung to the Republican candidates. Young people and African-Americans, who were key pieces of Mr. Obama’s winning coalition in 2008, showed little enthusiasm for the party’s candidates this year.
At stake for both parties, according to leaders and strategists interviewed Wednesday, is whether the Democrats and President Obama are able to maintain a strong governing majority after the 2010 elections, or if the GOP will regain power in Washington, either by narrowing Democratic majorities in Congress or regaining control of one or both chambers of Congress.
Officials in the White House and the Democratic National Committee said Wednesday the fall-off in minority and youth voters in Virginia and New Jersey was a red flag for 2010. In heavily minority Essex County, N.J., turnout plummeted from 2008 and Republican candidate Chris Christie garnered 28% of the vote, a striking total for a Republican.
Without the president on the ballot, Democratic leaders aren’t sure how to energize those voters, as well as win over disaffected and independent voters who sided with Mr. Obama last year and trended to the GOP on Tuesday.
Some Democrats aren’t sure the Obama formula of turning out traditional Democrats in droves and winning independents can be replicated next year. Instead, some Democratic officials are convinced the party must focus on the base, and downplay efforts to compromise.
The 2010 election will almost certainly revolve around Mr. Obama’s agenda, said White House senior adviser David Axelrod, predicting that the president will have an easier time translating his popularity to voter turnout for Democratic candidates—if those candidates help the president succeed.
“You’re not going to excite those voters by running away,” Mr. Axelrod said. You’re going to excite them by helping create success.”
How that debate turns out may become clear when the Democratic Party decides what to do about overhauling immigration laws. The president’s approval rating remains high with Latino voters, one official said, but they didn’t come out to vote Tuesday. To turn them out, Democrats may have to press ahead with a broad overhaul of immigration laws next year, including the creation of a pathway to citizenship for illegal immigrants. That might seal defeat for some Democrats in southern, Republican districts, such as Rep. Tom Perriello of Virginia, but it would energize the Latino vote elsewhere and give Mr. Obama a head of steam going into 2012′s presidential campaign.
Mr. Axelrod said the White House will not make its decision on immigration based on political considerations. “The president is committed to immigration reform,” he said. “When the support is there and ready to go, then he’s ready to go.”
The Republican dilemma is also clear: The party must harness the energy of conservative “Tea Party” activists without letting it tear the party apart.
“How do you tame it?” asked former House Majority Leader Dick Armey, now a leader of FreedomWorks, which has worked for conservative candidates who challenge fellow Republicans from the right. “I had a congressman call me yesterday who said, ‘I have some of these tea party activists coming after me. You have to call off the dogs.’ I said, ‘First thing you have to realize is, I don’t own the dogs.’ ”
The conservative Club for Growth pumped more than $1 million into the New York House race to back Conservative Party candidate Doug Hoffman and attack the Republican candidate, Dede Scozzafava, as a liberal. Ms. Scozzafava quit the race Saturday and endorsed the Democrat who won on Tuesday.
Club For Growth President Chris Chocola said Wednesday that while he was disappointed by the results, he was not deterred. The conservative political action committee is deciding whether to jump into Republican primary fights in Florida, Illinois and Connecticut.
A new front opened Tuesday when conservative Sen. Jim DeMint (R., S.C.) endorsed California Assemblyman Chuck DeVore for the 2010 Senate campaign against Sen. Barbara Boxer, the day before former Hewlett-Packard chief executive Carly Fiorina jumped into the race with the backing of the National Republican Senatorial Committee. That is likely to pique the Club for Growth’s interest in that race as well.
“Our members are not easily deterred,” Mr. Chocola said. “This is a fight we’re in for the long haul.”
