Pat Dollard

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The Hill:

Democrats are bracing for a loss in Tuesday’s special election in deep-blue Massachusetts.

The latest polling in the race shows Republican Scott Brown with leads in the single digits, but some pollsters are predicting the swings in momentum suggest he’ll win Tuesday by double digits. That would be a stunning result for Democrats.

A survey from Democratic-leaning Public Policy Polling released late Sunday had Brown ahead of Democrat Martha Coakley 51-46, while a Suffolk University poll from late last week had Brown ahead 50-46.

Research 2000, which conducted polls for liberal websites both last week and over the weekend, showed the race a tie, but with Brown gaining eight points in a matter of days.

“It looks like a win of better than 10 percent,” Suffolk pollster David Paleologos said on MSNBC on Monday. “All three bellwethers show a double-digit lead [for Brown]. They all show at least a 10-point lead. I think that Brown, from our statewide poll, has continued momentum.”

Massachusetts Democratic consultant Michael Goldman said his heart had Coakley winning narrowly, but that he puts plenty of stock in the forecast by Paleologos that Brown will be the winner on Tuesday.

He and other Democrats criticized Coakley’s campaign for everything from waiting to go on the air to failing to define the opponent early on. Most agree that after a relatively benign primary race, which ended in early December, Coakley’s staff was slow to recognize impending doom in the general election.

“Three weeks ago, she was the best campaigner in Massachusetts,” Goldman said. “I am astounded that the public image of her is so out of step with who she is and the kind of official she’s been.”

Party leaders over the weekend put out word that they expect to lose the seat long held by Sen. Edward Kennedy (D-Mass.). That didn’t mean they stopped trying, however.

President Barack Obama campaigned with Coakley on Sunday, and the Democratic nominee launched a rare ad featuring the president on Monday afternoon.

The result in the race will have a huge impact on healthcare reform, as a Coakley loss would deprive Democrats of a 60th vote in the Senate.

“If Brown wins, Democrats probably lose the healthcare bill,” said Goldman.

While Democrats tried to lower expectations as much as possible, Republicans remained cautiously optimistic, saying in private that they like their chances.

While polling spelled bad news for Democrats, they hold massive registration and infrastructure advantages in the state, and special elections often are unpredictable.

Jim Gomes, a former staffer for Sen. John Kerry (D-Mass.), said Brown has all the momentum on his side, and it will be a matter of how much better the Democratic turnout operation is than its counterpart.

“You have to ask yourself who the pollsters are screening in and out,” Gomes said. “Polls that show Obama with 50-50 favorability in Massachusetts just don’t strike me as credible.”

The most recent polls in Massachusetts have shown Obama’s approval on par with his disapproval, while during the primary campaign his approval was in the 60s.

The tail end of the campaign has been marked by attacks on Brown’s record and remarks. Democrats on Monday sought to criticize him for apparently laughing at a crude remark made by an audience member at a rally.

While Coakley was rallying with Obama on Sunday, Brown brought out former Boston Red Sox pitcher Curt Schilling. Coakley, in one of a few gaffes she has made in recent weeks, had suggested the Republican pitching legend is a Yankees fan.

In reminding voters of Coakley’s comments, Schilling assured, “I’m not a Yankee fan.”

Obama’s ad featured footage of the president’s visit on Sunday, in which he details Coakley’s work as state attorney general. The president has now done a Web video, a robocall, an appearance and a TV ad for Coakley. It is Obama’s highest level of involvement in a Democratic campaign since he was elected president.

Politico:

President Barack Obama plans a combative response if, as White House aides fear, Democrats lose Tuesday’s special Senate election in Massachusetts, close advisers say.

“This is not a moment that causes the president or anybody who works for him to express any doubt,” a senior administration official said. “It more reinforces the conviction to fight hard.”

A defeat by Martha Coakley for the seat held by the late Edward M. Kennedy would be embarrassing for the party — and potentially debilitating, since Democrats will lose their filibuster-proof, 60-vote hold on the Senate.

A potential casualty: the health care bill that was to be the crowning achievement of the president’s first year in office.

The health care backdrop has given the White House a strong incentive to strike a defiant posture, at least rhetorically, in response to what would be an undeniable embarrassment for the president and his party.

There won’t be any grand proclamation that “the era of Big Government is over” — the words President Bill Clinton uttered after Republicans won the Congress in the 1990s and he was forced to trim a once-ambitious agenda.

“The response will not be to do incremental things and try to salvage a few seats in the fall,” a presidential adviser said. “The best political route also happens to be the boldest rhetorical route, which is to go out and fight and let the chips fall where they may. We can say, ‘At least we fought for these things, and the Republicans said no.’”

Whatever words Obama chooses, however, will have trouble masking the substantive reality: A Massachusetts embarrassment would strongly increase the pressure Obama was already facing to retreat or slow down the “big bang” agenda he laid out a year ago.

Democratic operatives on Capitol Hill have made clear that enthusiasm is cooling for tackling controversial cap-and-trade legislation to curb carbon emissions as the party heads into an election year. The same is true for the always-sensitive issue of immigration reform. On the fiscal front, massive deficits were already pushing Obama toward more austerity on spending.

Perceptions among the pundit class would also be brutal. An upset by Republican Scott Brown would be covered in many quarters as a repudiation of Obama, especially after Obama’s last-ditch campaign appearance with Coakley 36 hours before the polls opened.

But the president’s advisers plan to spin it as a validation of the underdog arguments that fueled Obama’s insurgent candidacy.

“The painstaking campaign for change over two years in 2007 and 2008 has become a painstaking effort in the White House, too,” the official said. “The old habits of Washington aren’t going away easy.”

The White House rallying cry, according to one Obama confidant, will be, “Buckle up — let’s get some stuff done.”

The kind of stuff, however, will be different than what Obama emphasized when he roared into office a year ago Wednesday. White House strategists will be looking for modest victories that can be pulled off at a time when endangered Democrats will be even more gun-shy of tough votes than they were last year.

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