Pat Dollard

Tweet

Just who voted, and why?

Politico:

Rep. Ron Paul, the libertarian-leaning Texas Republican who ran a quixotic bid for the Republican presidential nomination in 2008, was the top vote-getter in the Conservative Political Action Conference’s straw poll, capturing the support of 31 percent of those who participated in the contest.

Former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney, who had won the CPAC straw poll for three consecutive years, took 22 percent of the vote. Former Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin won 7 percent and Minnesota Gov. Tim Pawlenty 6 percent. Pawlenty attended the conference; Palin did not.

Paul’s victory renders a straw poll that was already lightly contested among the likely 2012 GOP hopefuls all but irrelevant as the 74-year-old Texan is unlikely to be a serious contender for his party’s nomination.

As the results were displayed on twin large screens in the ballroom – and even before Republican pollster Tony Fabrizio could announce who won – a cascade of boos came down from a crowd that views Paul and his fervent supporters as an irritant. Paul’s backers responded with cheers, though, when their candidate was then proclaimed by Fabrizio as the winner.

CPAC organizers were plainly embarrassed by the results, which could reduce the perceived impact of a contest that was once thought to offer a window into which White House hopefuls were favored by movement conservatives.

A spokesman for the conference rushed over to reporters following the announcement to make sure they had heard the unmistakable boos when the screen first showed Paul had won the straw poll.

Rep, Mike Pence, an Indiana Republican who heads the House GOP conference, took 5 percent of the vote. Former House Speaker Newt Gingrich and former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee each won 4 percent.

2,935 votes were cast in the straw poll, the most in the history of the 37-year conference, but a fraction of the approximately 10,000 people who attended CPAC.

By finishing well above Palin and Pawlenty, Romney clearly remains well-positioned among the sort of conservative activists who attend such conferences as CPAC. Having already sought his party’s presidential nomination once, and retaining many of the supporters he had in 2008, Romney enters the early going of the 2012 race as something close to a frontrunner.

But the results of the straw poll, though imprecise, indicate that conservatives are not entirely happy with the field of likely candidates mentioned two years before the first balloting.

Fifty-three percent of those who participated in the contest said they wished the GOP had a better field of candidates. Forty-six percent said they were satisfied with those now seen as possible presidential candidates.

While Palin’s decision not to attend the conference may have impacted her single-digit showing, her modest finish underscores the degree to which she is not seen as a serious presidential contender by the most attuned activists in her own party.

Even though he and his aides sought to downplay the poll, Pawlenty’s finish represents a disappointment for the 2012 Republican who has worked the most aggressively in the last year to make a name in party circles. Besides Romney, Pawlenty is the only potential candidate with the makings of a campaign infrastructure.

But given Paul’s win and the minimal effort made to contest the straw poll by the mainstream candidates – unlike in years’ past there was no campaigning by them to rally support – the results don’t offer the window onto the organizational strength of the hopefuls offered by past polls.

Forty-eight percent of those who participated in the contest indicated that they were students and the divergent reaction to the results reflected the outcome.

When Paul was announced as the winner, his many college supporters erupted in the corridors outside the ballroom, yelling, jumping and chanting their candidate’s name.

“We came here a long way to support Ron Paul and the Campaign for Liberty,” said Jeremy Henchlifee, a student at Central Connecticut State University.

Other conservatives, though, voiced their frustration at Paul’s showing.

“I understand their passion, but he’s not the leader of the conservative movement,” said California Republican Phil Jennerjahn, who is mounting an uphill congressional run in the 33rd District.