Pat Dollard

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Politico:

President Barack Obama’s tax compromise with Republicans faces its first major test Monday, as the Senate prepares to cast a procedural vote on the $858 billion bill renewing the Bush-era tax cuts for all Americans.

The bill appears likely to clear the 60-vote threshold needed to cut off debate, setting up final passage as early as Tuesday.

The question is just how many senators will support the package during the 3 p.m. vote. On a technical vote Thursday, 65 senators backed the bill, 11 opposed it. Twenty-four senators, including 13 Republicans, were absent.

The bill faces a rougher road in the House. Top Democrats have acknowledged that the bill would receive a vote in the House, despite the nonbinding vote by the House Democratic caucus last week to oppose the measure. But they are insisting on changes.

“As the Democratic caucus said, this bill in its current form is unacceptable,” Rep. Chris Van Hollen (D-Md.) said Monday on MSNBC’s “The Rundown.” “It will come to the floor of the House in some form, and it will be open to changes.”

House Majority Leader Steny Hoyer struck a similar note Monday, saying he expects a vote in the House this week.

“I think we will pass a bill, as opposed to simply not passing anything,” he said at the National Press Club. “I think we’re going to have a vote on the Senate bill, with possible changes. We’ll see what the process is.”

Democratic sources say House Speaker Nancy Pelosi is leaning toward a process in which the House would take up the Senate bill and allow lawmakers to attempt to amend it with proposals, including boosting the estate tax to a level higher than the Senate bill’s mark. But no strategy decision has been finalized, and there are any number of ways to get the bill to the floor, allow for votes on various options and ensure that taxes don’t go up on everyone on Jan. 1.

The House could amend the bill and send it back to the Senate, which would then need to vote again. But it’s likely that any final changes will be additions to the bill — such as the renewable energy credits that House Democrats are hooked on — not modifications of its core components. If it gets to the president’s desk, it’s almost certain to keep his deal in place.

In the Senate, at least three members announced their support since Friday: Democrats Robert Menendez of New Jersey and Bob Casey of Pennsylvania, and Republican Scott Brown of Massachusetts.

“The bottom line is that most of my colleagues recognize, as I do, that this package will make a real difference in the lives of middle-class families, and I believe that it will clear this hurdle today with strong support,” Menendez said in a statement.

Obama will be selling his bill Monday, doing interviews with TV stations in media markets in four key electoral states: Columbus, Ohio; Denver, Colo.; Des Moines, Iowa; and Tampa/St. Petersburg, Fla.

A new poll by the Pew Research Center showed the tax-cut deal is winning broad bipartisan support. In all, 60 percent of voters surveyed approved of the agreement, while just 22 percent disapproved. There was almost no difference in partisan reaction to the bill, with 63 percent of Democrats, 62 percent of Republicans and 60 percent of independent voters supporting the deal.

Among Democratic voters, liberals support the deal as much as conservative and moderate Democrats, the Pew poll found — a marked difference from House Democrats who have raised strong objections to the deal.