Washington Post: The American Public’s Great Depression
Jun 9, 2011 Comments Off Pat Dollard
A new CNN/Opinion Research poll shows that nearly half of Americans think a new Great Depression is likely to occur in the next year.
Whether or not that Great Depression actually materializes in the economy, it’s pretty obvious that a (lower-case) great depression already exists when it comes to the American psyche, and it’s casting a pall over the 2012 race for president.
Pessimism about the economy permeates almost every poll that has been released this week, and it is starting to be one of the first defining characteristics of next year’s race.
This isn’t an entirely new development. In fact, the American public started taking a turn for the pessimistic a couple months ago, when gas prices started to rise.
But it’s just gotten worse and worse. And these new numbers are among the most striking we have seen to date.
The 48 percent of people who said a new Great Depression appears imminent did so even after it was explained to them just how bad the last one was. The question prefaced that, in 1929 and the 1930s, “roughly one out of four workers were unemployed, banks failed across the country, and millions of ordinary Americans were temporarily homeless or unable to feed their families.”
Even when banks were failing and the unemployment rate was rising quickly in 2008 and 2009, the same poll showed Americans didn’t think another Great Depression was so imminent. Just 41 percent said so in 2009 and 38 percent in 2008.
Washington Post-ABC News polling has shown a similar trend for the pessimistic. Though people rate the economy slightly better than they did over the last three years, even those who say it has improved say increasingly that the recovery has been weak.
But what does it mean?
First, it means that the White House’s efforts to beat back a bad economic report over the weekend was met by an extremely skeptical American public. Americans aren’t in the mood for politicians to tell them how much progress has been made, and President Obama will have to adjust accordingly if indicators don’t improve.
Second, it suggests that the brinksmanship that bubbles beneath the surface on the upcoming debt limit negotiations could be getting to people.
“Americans keep hearing about the debt ceiling and the disaster that will happen if the debt ceiling is raised or the disaster that will happen if the debt ceiling isn’t raised,” GOP pollster Chris Wilson said.
On the flip side, though, there’s also reason to believe that such pessimism could benefit Obama.
Put it this way: If you’re expecting a lump of coal in your stocking, and you wind up getting a toothbrush, that’s a good thing.
Americans are much more pessimistic about the economy than many experts, and if the experts are right and the economy can take a significant turn for the better, that initial pessimism and those lowered expectations could be a good thing for Obama.
Unless the American public just refuses to be satisfied, of course. Which is entirely possible.
“The one saving grace the president has is that voters are not the best at predicting the future, but this is not a positive sign for him,” said another GOP pollster, Glen Bolger.
