Guantanamo Recidivism Rate Climbs To 27%, 161 Released Confirmed Returned To Terrorism, Battlefield

Sep 14, 2011 1 Comment ›› The Assassin

Weekly Standard:

During a joint hearing of the Senate and House intelligence committees yesterday, Director of National Intelligence James Clapper testified that the recidivism rate for former Guantanamo detainees has risen to an estimated 27 percent. The total number of “confirmed” and “suspected” recidivists, according to Clapper, is now 161.

The latest assessment is higher than the previous one offered by the DNI in December 2010. At the time, the DNI estimated that the recidivism rate was 25 percent, and included 150 “confirmed” and “suspected” recidivists.

According to the DNI’s December 2010 report, confirmed cases are those in which a “preponderance of information” identifies “a specific former GTMO detainee as directly involved in terrorist or insurgent activities.” In suspected recidivism cases, “

lausible but unverified or single-source reporting” indicates “a specific former GTMO detainee is directly involved in terrorist or insurgent activities.” Engaging in anti-U.S. “statements or propaganda does not qualify as terrorist or insurgent activity” in either confirmed or suspected cases.

The U.S. government’s estimate of the number of ex-Guantanamo detainees who have returned to jihad has steadily increased over time.

In June 2008, the Defense Department reported that 37 former detainees were “confirmed or suspected” recidivists. On January 13, 2009—seven months later—Pentagon spokesman Geoff Morrell said that number had climbed to 61. By May 2009, when a recidivism assessment was leaked to the New York Times (the report was based on information available as of mid-March 2009), the Defense Department had found that same metric had risen further to 74—exactly double the Pentagon’s estimate just 11 months before.