Home  »  2012 presidential campaign  »  James Carville Poll Panics Dems: Romney Leads By 15 Points Among Independents


Aug 31, 2012 No Comments ›› Pat Dollard

Excerpted from Rush Limbaugh.com: RUSH: This has not been reported on much. I haven’t seen it anywhere. I got a secret e-mail yesterday afternoon. Stan Greenberg and James Carville have this company. It’s called Democracy Corps, and they go out there and they do polling. And you recall that it was Carville who warned Obama some months ago, “Don’t go out there and talk about the economy, especially an economy in recovery. Don’t go out there and try to convince people that we’re roaring back, because we’re not. And they know it because they’re living it.”

He warned Obama: Stay away from it.

Well, guess what? Carville and Greenberg have just released a new poll, and it’s devastating for Obama. Among independents — the precious, eagerly sought, oh-God-everybody-loves-them independents — Romney leads Obama (this is a poll this week) by 15 points, 53 to 38 in independents. This is remarkable. This is a Stan Greenberg and James Carville poll. “Independents disapprove of Obama’s job performance 56 to 40%. And when looking at intensity, disapproval is greater than two to one, 47 to 20%.”

It is devastating.

This is James Carville’s own poll.

Now, according to exit polling, Obama won a majority of independents in 2008. It was 52 to 44, an eight-point majority in the election of 2000, according to exit polls. “His cratering of support among swing voters reflected in this Carville poll,” and in many others, “is the equivalent of losing more than 5.3 million independent voters from his 2008 total.” This is undoubtedly the kind of polling data they have in the White House, the often-referred-to “internals,” meaning the real stuff.

The candidates have to know the truth.

They do not put out polls to try to affect news or shape opinion.

They have to deal in Realville when it comes to polls. We never see the polls the candidates do. We never do. All we see are the polls from the news networks and other polling organizations. Of course, they have their own agendas. But the candidate polls, or in this case the White House polls? This is as close as we’re ever gonna get to seeing one: The Carville and Greenberg poll. People who live and die, A, with polls; and then live and die, the independent vote, to right now to see Obama down 15 points?

This was before the convention. I got this yesterday. And the convention had not been going on long enough to have been a large factor. Now, here’s why. Here’s why the deficit: “President Obama’s government-centered policies created the chasm that he now faces with independents, and any likability advantage that he holds has been unable to bridge the ideology divide.” So his likability is not making up for the chasm created with independents over big government.

The independents are rejecting big government, government-centric policies, according to a poll from Carville and Greenberg. So I’m sure this is what they’ve got in the White House, and this is why they’re panicked. And it’s why they’ve been panicked for a while, and the “likability” isn’t making up for it. Now, it’s fascinating. Folks, there’s a story that, without me putting these two things together, you might not be able to assemble in the proper context.

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