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Real Clear Politics’ Tom Bevan: Trump Closes The Gap In Key States

Infidel Ali
Real Clear Politics’ Tom Bevan: Trump Closes The Gap In Key States

MEGYN KELLY: Florida is the most important state for both of them, right?

TOM BEVAN: It is, particularly for Donald Trump. If you look at the map, he can’t get there unless he wins Florida’s 29 electoral votes. He would really have to run the table, it would take something of a miracle. So, that is critical for Donald Trump. Obama won Florida by less than a point in 2012, it is now within one point in our RealClearPolitics average. It has been really close for the entire month of September.

Trump is going to try to run up his numbers in the North, in the Panhandle. Clinton will run up her numbers in South Florida. And then the battle will be fought, as it always is in Florida, in that I-4 corridor around Tampa. That is where this state will be decided.

MEGYN KELLY: North Carolina. That state would traditionally go Republican?

TOM BEVAN: Right. Obama won North Carolina in 2008, but he lost it in 2012 by about two points to Mitt Romney. This is a state Trump has to keep in the Republic column. 15 electoral votes. And it is close. Very, very close. In fact, we have seven polls there: Three of them favor Trump, two of them favor Clinton, and two of them are exactly tied. So it is that close in North Carolina. And that is one that Trump really needs to keep in the Republican column. If he loses that state, it is going to really complicate his path to 270.


TOM BEVAN: No Republican has ever won the White House without Ohio. It will probably be the same again this year. That is one state where Trump has a small, but stable lead. In the month of September, he is leading by a little bit — two points in our average overall.

MEGYN KELLY: Is that the same as Obama last time? He was ahead of Mitt Romney just by a bit, in all those polls in Ohio, and that is how it turned out.

TOM BEVAN: Exactly, Obama won nine of the ten battleground states. He was ahead with small leads in all of those states and they held up for him.

MEGYN KELLY: Okay, let’s talk about Colorado, because Clinton was up 11 points there a month ago.

TOM BEVAN: Colorado, to me, is Clinton’s firewall state. It is a state that Obama won handily in ’08 and ’12. Clinton had a dramatic lead there just a few weeks ago. And now Trump is leading by less than one point. A pretty dramatic drop in altitude for Clinton there. Nine electoral votes — it is not a ton, but it is key. If she can hold on to Colorado, she can afford for Trump to win another state that might be a little bit tougher for him. So that is a state to definitely keep an eye on for Clinton.

MEGYN KELLY: And then, there is the be-all, end-all: Pennsylvania. If Trump can win Pennsylvania it would be huge. But the odds of him winning it, even though it has tightened — you tell me.

TOM BEVAN: The odds of it -this is the Lucy with a football state for Republicans. Every four years there go in and say they have a chance, and then Lucy pulls the football away, and it is never even that close. This year, however, given the makeup of the state, Clinton has lost a lot of altitude, she is down to under two points in the latest RealClearPolitics average of polls. It has Democrats really worried and Republicans licking their chops. But it is a state that has not gone well for Republicans in the final analysis. We’ll have to wait and see!


  • Livefree Ordie

    For the sake of our nation, register to vote if you must, and vote for anyone but Hillary!

    Newt Gingrich said something very important about Hillary: “It will be the most corrupt administration in American history, which I find frightening,” Gingrich said. “Having a commander in chief that’s that corrupt could dramatically weaken the fabric of American society.”

    This NY Post article actually has a great analysis of the corruption we’re already facing: Remember, Obama promised the “most transparent administration in history,” as part of his lies to get the office. Hillary’s got too much contempt for everyone that’s not her to even bother false promises. The audacity and corruption will only get worse if she’s not stopped.

    God bless America. Trump 2016!

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